|W - D - L||14 - 4 - 1|
|Win rate: 73.68%||Odds avg: 1.92||Stake avg: 1||Streak:|
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Soccer Scouting - The article states the most common errors, other than poor money management, that make people lose money on the long run, and address every of them. Most of newbie punters make all of these mistakes, while numerous experienced punters make at least some of them. Mastering yourself is one of the keys to being a successful bettor, and I would advise you to pay advantage to the following things. Read the article with carefully, because important for bettors!
Underestimating home team advantage:
I’ve been reading a preview that states “the odds of 2.3 on the away team are value because teams are on equal level”. This was enough for me to dismiss this tipster as a serious punter, as the actual fact is that, in a match of two equal teams where the away team is priced at 2.2, the value would be on the home team. The home field advantage is a very important factor, and is something that most of the punters cannot calculate. Moreover, the public bettors who cannot calculate home advantage help us get value on numerous home teams. The home field advantage varies by league or, in certain cases, by team; I will not tell you exactly how much playing in front of their own fans boosts a team’s chances of winning the match, but I will advise you to monitor odds closely (especially when teams of nearly equal strength face each other). Generally, the home field advantage in a given league is less than -1/2 goals but more than -1/4 goals, and most of the punters are underestimating it.
Taking bets according to ancient form:
Of course, form is a very important factor in betting. Teams that start their season with a few consecutive home wins will have huge confidence in their upcoming home games, and so on. The thing most punters do not understand is that form is a very delicate thing – it is a bubble that keeps expanding but bursts very easily. Once a team loses its first match following a long winning run, the second defeat is usually not too far away (unless, of course, it is a top team), but many people will make bets on this team according to their previous form, and almost always lose, i.e., Osasuna started their 2005/06 season with nine home wins in a row. They were then held to a draw by Racing Santander and were a public bet in all of their remaining home games, as the public saw them as an invincible home team that should bounce back. The thing is, fantastic runs of form mostly come down to confidence, and once such a run form ends, you should not expect the team to repeat it. The same applies for extremely poor runs of form.
Using H2H the wrong way:
Novice tipsters adore H2H stats. Many of the picks they have are highly motivated by previous meetings between two teams and many picks are skipped due to not being favored by H2H. The truth is that a H2H pattern is usually set by a string of coincidences, and previous meetings are most of the time not taken into account at all by serious punters. Simply, teams change a lot over the years and previous meetings usually mean nothing when it comes to comparing the current strength of the teams and have no effect on the players. An exception is match where there are rivalries between the teams in question: in such cases, the team that has been bossing recent H2H stats usually has a significant mental advantage that should be taken into account. But these are extremely rare cases (Basel’s dominance over FC Zurich the only ones I can recall)
Chasing on losses:
Chasing is one of the most common reasons why punters lose and, although we all have a basic instinct that very much urges us to chase after losing runs, we must avoid doing this at all costs. There are two types of chasing: chasing regarding a certain team and chasing losses in general. You know you are chasing a team when you take them to win or lose (or, God forbid, draw) several times in a row. If course, it is completely Okay for you to go against a team, they get a result in a lucky manner, and you go against them next week, as value will probably be against them. However, my strong advice is to avoid betting on or against the same team more than three times in a row after not winning any of the previous bets regarding them – winning the bet would give you a short mental relief, but losing it would affect your confidence and make it almost impossible for you to objectively judge the team in question in the future. As for chasing losses in general, you know that you are chasing when you took 4 bets on a Monday evening after ending the weekend in a heavy loss. Having an occasional bad day/week is normal in betting, and the last thing you should be trying to do is to try and win the money back immediately – if you enter a day with the mindset of ‘I have to win today’, you will end up forcing bets – on the long run, it will have terrible consequences on both your confidence and cash balance. If you ended a day in minus due to errors you made yourself (taking poor bets which you wouldn’t have otherwise taken), we recommend (unless you are very experienced), skipping the next day of betting. Even if you take good bets, there is a chance you could lose again, and this scenario could leave you with a confidence problem that could stick with you for weeks or months.
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